Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Santo André beat ABC with a 24.8% chance, Vila Nova beat Grêmio Barueri with a 22.6% chance, and Gama beat Paraná with a 18.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 2 (before the first match) against those on August 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gama | Relegation | 64.4% | 47.5% | −16.8 |
| Grêmio Barueri | Promotion | 46.0% | 32.5% | −13.5 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 22.0% | 33.0% | +11.0 |
| Avaí | Promotion | 57.6% | 68.5% | +10.9 |
| Juventude | Promotion | 44.4% | 33.9% | −10.5 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 43.4% | 33.0% | −10.3 |
| Vila Nova | Promotion | 17.6% | 26.7% | +9.0 |
| Brasiliense | Relegation | 61.3% | 70.3% | +8.9 |
| Santo André | Promotion | 15.2% | 23.9% | +8.7 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Relegation | 25.0% | 17.1% | −7.9 |
