Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Marília beat Coritiba with a 21.5% chance and Gama beat Grêmio Barueri with a 23.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 13 (before the first match) against those on November 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulista | Relegation | 26.1% | 64.5% | +38.4 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 88.1% | 52.0% | −36.1 |
| Marília | Promotion | 24.5% | 59.5% | +35.1 |
| Gama | Relegation | 30.7% | 4.9% | −25.8 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 38.8% | 21.2% | −17.6 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 96.0% | 80.8% | −15.1 |
| Ipatinga | Champion | 4.1% | 19.2% | +15.1 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 3.6% | 9.4% | +5.8 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 95.3% | 100% | +4.7 |
| CRB | Relegation | 4.5% | 0% | −4.5 |
