Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, no draws and 5 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Santo André beat Ceará with a 23.3% chance and Fortaleza beat Marília with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 17 (before the first match) against those on November 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marília | Promotion | 59.5% | 0% | −59.5 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 52.0% | 100% | +48.0 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 64.5% | 100% | +35.5 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 21.2% | 0% | −21.1 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 80.8% | 100% | +19.2 |
| Ipatinga | Champion | 19.2% | 0% | −19.2 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 88.5% | 100% | +11.5 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 9.4% | 0% | −9.4 |
| Gama | Relegation | 4.9% | 0% | −4.9 |
