Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Criciúma with a 21.6% chance and Avaí beat Paulista with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 13 (before the first match) against those on October 20 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciúma | Promotion | 50.7% | 30.6% | −20.0 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 26.3% | 8.2% | −18.1 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 66.0% | 82.2% | +16.2 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 48.3% | 63.2% | +14.9 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 56.8% | 70.4% | +13.6 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 66.1% | 77.2% | +11.1 |
| Marília | Promotion | 43.0% | 33.3% | −9.7 |
| Vitória | Champion | 14.4% | 7.5% | −6.9 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 75.2% | 68.5% | −6.7 |
| Fortaleza | Promotion | 10.2% | 15.9% | +5.8 |
