Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ituano beat Paulista with a 18.2% chance and Portuguesa beat Ponte Preta with a 23.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 6 (before the first match) against those on October 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 34.5% | 56.8% | +22.3 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 54.0% | 75.2% | +21.2 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 46.6% | 66.0% | +19.4 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 44.8% | 26.3% | −18.5 |
| Marília | Promotion | 56.1% | 43.0% | −13.1 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 63.3% | 50.7% | −12.6 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 58.9% | 48.3% | −10.6 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 55.8% | 66.1% | +10.3 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 10.4% | 17.8% | +7.4 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 12.0% | 5.0% | −7.0 |
