Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Criciúma beat Gama with a 24.7% chance and Ponte Preta beat São Caetano with a 23.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 2 (before the first match) against those on October 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciúma | Promotion | 40.6% | 63.3% | +22.6 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 27.9% | 44.8% | +16.9 |
| CRB | Relegation | 33.7% | 20.5% | −13.2 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 41.6% | 54.0% | +12.4 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 12.5% | 24.5% | +12.0 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 45.4% | 34.5% | −11.0 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 68.4% | 58.9% | −9.5 |
| Marília | Promotion | 65.0% | 56.1% | −8.9 |
| Criciúma | Champion | 4.5% | 12.0% | +7.5 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 12.4% | 5.3% | −7.1 |
