Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Vitória beat Ponte Preta with a 23.0% chance and Santo André beat Santa Cruz with a 21.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 29 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo André | Relegation | 53.2% | 32.8% | −20.3 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 23.9% | 41.6% | +17.7 |
| CRB | Relegation | 23.8% | 33.7% | +9.9 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 32.0% | 40.6% | +8.7 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 76.4% | 68.4% | −7.9 |
| Ponte Preta | Promotion | 10.4% | 3.2% | −7.2 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 40.2% | 47.1% | +6.9 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 5.9% | 11.6% | +5.7 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 10.9% | 5.7% | −5.2 |
| Santa Cruz | Promotion | 7.7% | 2.5% | −5.2 |
