Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 2 draws and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Marília beat Ponte Preta with a 22.5% chance, Portuguesa beat Vitória with a 23.2% chance, Fortaleza beat Brasiliense with a 22.9% chance, and São Caetano beat Grêmio Barueri with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 22 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marília | Promotion | 43.5% | 65.9% | +22.3 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 27.0% | 46.9% | +19.9 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 38.7% | 23.9% | −14.8 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 28.3% | 40.2% | +11.9 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 22.8% | 10.9% | −11.9 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 53.9% | 65.8% | +11.8 |
| Brasiliense | Promotion | 24.1% | 12.5% | −11.6 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 19.2% | 29.4% | +10.2 |
| Ipatinga | Champion | 25.6% | 15.7% | −9.9 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 19.2% | 9.4% | −9.9 |
