Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Vitória beat Marília with a 23.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 15 (before the first match) against those on September 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | Promotion | 20.9% | 38.7% | +17.7 |
| Marília | Promotion | 58.5% | 43.5% | −15.0 |
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 68.1% | 80.0% | +11.9 |
| Santo André | Relegation | 50.5% | 60.5% | +10.0 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 49.9% | 40.0% | −9.9 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 32.6% | 22.8% | −9.8 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 28.7% | 19.2% | −9.5 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 45.4% | 53.9% | +8.6 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 20.3% | 28.3% | +7.9 |
| Marília | Champion | 13.0% | 5.2% | −7.8 |
