Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. 5 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Coritiba beat Brasiliense with a 24.2% chance, Ceará beat CRB with a 22.2% chance, Ipatinga beat Criciúma with a 21.5% chance, Gama beat Fortaleza with a 22.4% chance, and Portuguesa beat Marília with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 8 (before the first match) against those on September 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipatinga | Promotion | 46.3% | 68.1% | +21.8 |
| Coritiba | Champion | 27.4% | 45.4% | +18.0 |
| Brasiliense | Promotion | 45.2% | 31.1% | −14.0 |
| Portuguesa | Promotion | 18.8% | 32.7% | +14.0 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 63.6% | 49.9% | −13.7 |
| Coritiba | Promotion | 72.9% | 86.5% | +13.6 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 33.5% | 20.3% | −13.1 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 20.3% | 32.6% | +12.2 |
| Marília | Promotion | 70.6% | 58.5% | −12.1 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 19.7% | 8.4% | −11.3 |
