Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Brasiliense beat Gama with a 24.7% chance, São Caetano beat Paulista with a 24.1% chance, Fortaleza beat Ceará with a 23.7% chance, and Vitória beat Santo André with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 4 (before the first match) against those on September 8 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santo André | Relegation | 26.5% | 41.9% | +15.4 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 33.5% | 20.3% | −13.2 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 28.1% | 15.0% | −13.1 |
| Brasiliense | Promotion | 32.7% | 45.2% | +12.5 |
| Paulista | Relegation | 21.2% | 33.5% | +12.3 |
| Criciúma | Promotion | 75.1% | 63.6% | −11.5 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 39.2% | 27.8% | −11.4 |
| Vitória | Promotion | 17.5% | 28.1% | +10.6 |
| Marília | Promotion | 80.3% | 70.6% | −9.7 |
| Marília | Champion | 33.1% | 24.0% | −9.1 |
