Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ceará beat Gama with a 22.7% chance, Ituano beat São Raimundo-AM with a 23.5% chance, and Marília beat Guarani with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 23 (before the first match) against those on September 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Raimundo-AM | Relegation | 46.6% | 67.2% | +20.6 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 18.8% | 35.2% | +16.4 |
| Sport | Promotion | 61.2% | 76.2% | +15.0 |
| Ituano | Relegation | 40.2% | 25.3% | −14.8 |
| Ceará | Relegation | 73.9% | 59.0% | −14.8 |
| Marília | Promotion | 9.8% | 21.8% | +12.0 |
| Sport | Champion | 15.8% | 27.1% | +11.4 |
| Gama | Relegation | 12.0% | 22.5% | +10.5 |
| Remo | Relegation | 63.7% | 53.8% | −9.9 |
| Náutico | Champion | 33.4% | 26.0% | −7.4 |
