Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 1 away win. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Cuiabá beat Fluminense with a 23.3% chance and Coritiba beat Athletico-PR with a 10.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 27 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiabá | Sudamericana | 41.3% | 70.7% | +29.4 |
| Santos | Relegation | 48.6% | 24.8% | −23.8 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 55.9% | 33.0% | −22.9 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores | 19.9% | 41.0% | +21.2 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 36.8% | 57.4% | +20.7 |
| Red Bull Bragantino | Libertadores | 49.7% | 68.6% | +18.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Sudamericana | 59.0% | 40.4% | −18.6 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 15.6% | 34.0% | +18.4 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 41.6% | 23.9% | −17.7 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 32.8% | 50.3% | +17.5 |
