Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Santos beat Bahia with a 22.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 17 (before the first match) against those on September 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 0.6% | 100% | +99.4 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 39.2% | 0% | −39.2 |
| Santos | Relegation | 74.4% | 45.5% | −28.9 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 35.8% | 62.7% | +26.9 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 84.1% | 63.0% | −21.1 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 43.7% | 25.0% | −18.7 |
| Vasco | Sudamericana | 15.3% | 33.7% | +18.4 |
| Flamengo | Sudamericana | 39.0% | 55.6% | +16.6 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 21.0% | 36.1% | +15.2 |
| Botafogo | Champion | 65.0% | 50.9% | −14.1 |
