Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Náutico with a 21.7% chance and Santos beat São Paulo with a 18.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 13 (before the first match) against those on July 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 51.1% | 34.2% | −16.9 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 38.1% | 52.7% | +14.6 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 27.0% | 15.8% | −11.2 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 46.4% | 35.5% | −10.9 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 21.3% | 30.3% | +9.0 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 28.1% | 36.8% | +8.8 |
| Santos | Relegation | 17.0% | 9.5% | −7.5 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 8.4% | 15.2% | +6.8 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 30.3% | 23.7% | −6.6 |
| São Paulo | Champion | 14.3% | 7.8% | −6.5 |
