Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Atlético-GO beat Fluminense with a 13.8% chance and Santos beat Coritiba with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 13 (before the first match) against those on September 16 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 77.0% | 86.8% | +9.9 |
| Náutico | Relegation | 19.7% | 10.1% | −9.6 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 62.7% | 54.9% | −7.8 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 16.2% | 8.8% | −7.4 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 67.9% | 75.1% | +7.2 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 28.4% | 34.8% | +6.5 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores Second Round | 18.4% | 24.7% | +6.3 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores Second Round | 62.6% | 56.5% | −6.1 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 9.9% | 15.8% | +5.8 |
| Atlético-GO | Relegation | 95.2% | 89.4% | −5.8 |
