Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Ponte Preta beat Flamengo with a 18.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 2 (before the first match) against those on September 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | Relegation | 67.0% | 58.8% | −8.3 |
| Sport | Relegation | 70.7% | 78.7% | +8.1 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 82.3% | 74.5% | −7.8 |
| Coritiba | Relegation | 22.1% | 29.6% | +7.5 |
| Portuguesa | Relegation | 15.3% | 8.0% | −7.3 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 12.0% | 4.8% | −7.1 |
| Fluminense | Champion | 40.8% | 47.5% | +6.7 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 70.4% | 76.7% | +6.3 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores Second Round | 7.4% | 13.4% | +5.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 36.7% | 31.5% | −5.2 |
