Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo beat Cruzeiro with a 22.3% chance and Vasco beat São Paulo with a 21.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 28 (before the first match) against those on July 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 56.2% | 41.2% | −15.0 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 37.7% | 26.2% | −11.4 |
| Vasco | Libertadores | 19.2% | 29.0% | +9.8 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 56.4% | 47.0% | −9.4 |
| Flamengo | Libertadores | 34.5% | 43.7% | +9.3 |
| Avaí | Relegation | 77.1% | 68.0% | −9.1 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 17.7% | 26.2% | +8.5 |
| Botafogo | Libertadores | 15.2% | 23.7% | +8.5 |
| Figueirense | Relegation | 20.6% | 28.5% | +7.9 |
| América-MG | Relegation | 80.5% | 88.4% | +7.9 |
