Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fortaleza beat Ponte Preta with a 22.5% chance, São Caetano beat Vasco with a 23.3% chance, and Corinthians beat Fluminense with a 18.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 13 (before the first match) against those on September 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 15.4% | 86.7% | +71.3 |
| São Caetano | Relegation | 18.2% | 79.9% | +61.7 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 59.9% | 4.4% | −55.5 |
| Santa Cruz | Relegation | 50.8% | 92.4% | +41.7 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 61.8% | 20.3% | −41.5 |
| São Paulo | Champion | 32.0% | 60.8% | +28.8 |
| São Caetano | Sudamericana | 28.0% | 1.2% | −26.8 |
| Botafogo | Relegation | 32.0% | 7.1% | −25.0 |
| Figueirense | Libertadores | 36.7% | 12.8% | −23.9 |
| Grêmio | Sudamericana | 35.4% | 12.6% | −22.8 |
