Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
11 matches played out of 11: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Cruzeiro beat Ponte Preta with a 21.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 22 (before the first match) against those on September 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense | Relegation | 78.7% | 66.1% | −12.6 |
| Corinthians | Champion | 26.6% | 38.5% | +12.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 17.1% | 28.8% | +11.7 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 38.9% | 50.2% | +11.3 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 74.1% | 85.4% | +11.2 |
| Corinthians | Sudamericana | 24.8% | 14.3% | −10.5 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 64.8% | 74.4% | +9.7 |
| Cruzeiro | Relegation | 15.7% | 6.1% | −9.6 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 56.0% | 46.6% | −9.4 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 49.2% | 40.3% | −8.9 |
