Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Goiás beat Fluminense with a 24.9% chance and Palmeiras beat Juventude with a 23.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 7 (before the first match) against those on October 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude | Libertadores | 39.3% | 16.1% | −23.2 |
| Juventude | Sudamericana | 55.9% | 75.9% | +20.0 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 31.3% | 48.2% | +16.9 |
| Athletico-PR | Champion | 62.3% | 45.7% | −16.6 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 50.3% | 34.7% | −15.5 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 29.8% | 17.7% | −12.1 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 58.5% | 70.5% | +12.0 |
| Santos | Champion | 29.3% | 41.2% | +11.9 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 23.1% | 33.5% | +10.4 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 54.0% | 43.6% | −10.4 |
