Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 4 home wins, 6 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Fluminense beat Grêmio with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 2 (before the first match) against those on October 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 40.2% | 58.5% | +18.3 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 38.0% | 54.0% | +16.0 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 58.7% | 73.0% | +14.4 |
| São Paulo | Sudamericana | 53.8% | 39.5% | −14.3 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 43.3% | 31.3% | −12.0 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 27.9% | 17.6% | −10.3 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 56.0% | 46.3% | −9.7 |
| Vasco | Relegation | 19.2% | 10.4% | −8.8 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 47.6% | 39.3% | −8.3 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 31.4% | 23.1% | −8.3 |
