Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 9 home wins, no draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Botafogo beat Fluminense with a 19.7% chance and Juventude beat Corinthians with a 22.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 30 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | Relegation | 52.6% | 35.9% | −16.7 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 31.1% | 47.6% | +16.5 |
| Guarani | Relegation | 73.3% | 86.1% | +12.8 |
| Atletico-MG | Relegation | 30.7% | 43.3% | +12.6 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 42.7% | 31.4% | −11.2 |
| Palmeiras | Sudamericana | 50.0% | 60.4% | +10.4 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 17.9% | 27.9% | +10.0 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 48.1% | 57.5% | +9.4 |
| Figueirense | Sudamericana | 13.3% | 22.6% | +9.3 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 21.2% | 30.2% | +9.0 |
