Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Juventude beat Goiás with a 20.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 26 (before the first match) against those on September 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR | Champion | 39.3% | 58.1% | +18.8 |
| Santos | Champion | 46.1% | 30.7% | −15.4 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 66.8% | 52.7% | −14.1 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 30.9% | 17.0% | −13.8 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 17.8% | 31.1% | +13.3 |
| Vitória | Relegation | 38.7% | 50.7% | +12.0 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 58.9% | 48.1% | −10.9 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 33.3% | 42.7% | +9.3 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 24.5% | 33.2% | +8.7 |
| São Caetano | Sudamericana | 37.1% | 45.0% | +7.9 |
