Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fluminense beat Criciúma with a 23.0% chance, Ponte Preta beat Juventude with a 20.0% chance, and Athletico-PR beat Cruzeiro with a 24.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 12 (before the first match) against those on September 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 32.3% | 45.8% | +13.6 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 36.3% | 48.9% | +12.5 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 27.1% | 14.7% | −12.4 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 26.0% | 15.0% | −11.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 34.7% | 24.3% | −10.4 |
| Goiás | Libertadores | 53.6% | 43.4% | −10.3 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 79.8% | 89.7% | +9.9 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 43.1% | 53.1% | +9.9 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 19.0% | 10.0% | −9.0 |
| Athletico-PR | Champion | 28.5% | 37.5% | +9.0 |
