Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: São Caetano beat Criciúma with a 24.5% chance, Paraná beat Cruzeiro with a 18.7% chance, Coritiba beat São Paulo with a 21.5% chance, and Vasco beat Grêmio with a 24.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on August 29 (before the first match) against those on September 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraná | Relegation | 76.0% | 59.9% | −16.1 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 42.3% | 55.4% | +13.1 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 68.5% | 80.9% | +12.4 |
| Santos | Champion | 24.8% | 36.8% | +12.0 |
| Cruzeiro | Sudamericana | 35.5% | 23.5% | −12.0 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 46.4% | 34.5% | −11.9 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 49.6% | 38.4% | −11.2 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 47.9% | 36.7% | −11.2 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 13.7% | 24.4% | +10.8 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 27.4% | 16.8% | −10.6 |
