Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Palmeiras beat Paraná with a 22.8% chance, Botafogo beat São Caetano with a 13.2% chance, and Coritiba beat Cruzeiro with a 20.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 27 (before the first match) against those on July 4 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 39.1% | 26.1% | −13.0 |
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 39.4% | 27.6% | −11.8 |
| Palmeiras | Libertadores | 23.8% | 35.0% | +11.2 |
| Flamengo | Relegation | 37.2% | 26.6% | −10.6 |
| Botafogo | Relegation | 82.4% | 72.8% | −9.6 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 35.3% | 44.3% | +9.0 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 22.4% | 30.7% | +8.2 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 23.8% | 31.8% | +8.0 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 25.2% | 33.0% | +7.8 |
| Corinthians | Relegation | 42.6% | 50.3% | +7.8 |
