Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Coritiba beat Atletico-MG with a 18.6% chance, Internacional beat Vitória with a 18.9% chance, and Fluminense beat Grêmio with a 21.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 21 (before the first match) against those on April 27 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | Libertadores | 14.1% | 25.7% | +11.6 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 46.1% | 34.8% | −11.2 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 36.7% | 47.6% | +10.9 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 23.9% | 33.8% | +9.9 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 71.5% | 61.8% | −9.7 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 28.4% | 37.9% | +9.5 |
| Vitória | Libertadores | 28.3% | 18.8% | −9.5 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 39.1% | 29.9% | −9.2 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 19.9% | 11.3% | −8.6 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 14.5% | 22.4% | +7.9 |
