Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Criciúma beat Grêmio with a 21.2% chance and Ponte Preta beat São Paulo with a 18.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 20 (before the first match) against those on July 24 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciúma | Libertadores | 25.4% | 38.9% | +13.5 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 18.2% | 26.7% | +8.5 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 29.5% | 37.6% | +8.1 |
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 39.3% | 46.4% | +7.1 |
| Paysandu | Relegation | 13.0% | 6.4% | −6.7 |
| Coritiba | Libertadores | 50.1% | 43.9% | −6.2 |
| Athletico-PR | Sudamericana | 37.5% | 31.6% | −5.9 |
| Paysandu | Sudamericana | 15.3% | 21.1% | +5.8 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 14.7% | 9.3% | −5.3 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 26.8% | 32.2% | +5.3 |
