Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Internacional beat Coritiba with a 16.9% chance, Flamengo beat Bahia with a 24.0% chance, and Cruzeiro beat São Paulo with a 19.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 30 (before the first match) against those on April 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 49.5% | 35.0% | −14.4 |
| Paraná | Relegation | 24.0% | 13.2% | −10.7 |
| Cruzeiro | Libertadores | 26.5% | 37.1% | +10.6 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 28.5% | 37.3% | +8.7 |
| Juventude | Libertadores | 38.4% | 29.7% | −8.7 |
| Vitória | Libertadores | 21.5% | 29.7% | +8.2 |
| Internacional | Relegation | 22.5% | 14.4% | −8.2 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 12.1% | 19.5% | +7.4 |
| Bahia | Relegation | 15.1% | 22.3% | +7.1 |
| Ponte Preta | Libertadores | 16.7% | 23.8% | +7.0 |
