Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 3 home wins, 8 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Atletico-MG beat Corinthians with a 21.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 28 (before the first match) against those on March 30 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | Libertadores | 34.1% | 50.9% | +16.8 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 43.5% | 30.2% | −13.3 |
| Criciúma | Relegation | 30.3% | 18.2% | −12.1 |
| Athletico-PR | Libertadores | 14.4% | 23.9% | +9.6 |
| Grêmio | Libertadores | 38.1% | 28.5% | −9.6 |
| Fluminense | Libertadores | 32.6% | 24.1% | −8.5 |
| Guarani | Libertadores | 11.1% | 19.1% | +8.0 |
| Atletico-MG | Champion | 7.1% | 14.9% | +7.8 |
| Criciúma | Sudamericana | 9.1% | 15.4% | +6.3 |
| Guarani | Sudamericana | 22.6% | 27.9% | +5.3 |
