Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 5 home wins, 5 draws and 2 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Fortaleza beat Flamengo with a 20.0% chance and Figueirense beat Juventude with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 13 (before the first match) against those on July 31 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | Libertadores | 63.1% | 88.4% | +25.3 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 29.8% | 48.4% | +18.7 |
| Santos | Sudamericana | 28.6% | 11.1% | −17.5 |
| Fluminense | Sudamericana | 23.6% | 7.3% | −16.3 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 53.7% | 37.7% | −15.9 |
| Grêmio | Relegation | 12.5% | 28.3% | +15.8 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 32.3% | 46.3% | +14.0 |
| Santos | Champion | 12.1% | 24.8% | +12.7 |
| Fluminense | Relegation | 5.7% | 18.3% | +12.7 |
| Coritiba | Libertadores | 41.7% | 53.5% | +11.8 |
