Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 5 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paysandu beat Vasco with a 21.1% chance, Coritiba beat Corinthians with a 21.2% chance, and Guarani beat São Caetano with a 19.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on July 10 (before the first match) against those on July 13 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Caetano | Libertadores | 37.4% | 24.8% | −12.6 |
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 65.2% | 53.7% | −11.5 |
| Coritiba | Libertadores | 30.4% | 41.7% | +11.4 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 26.1% | 16.2% | −9.8 |
| São Paulo | Libertadores | 75.3% | 84.8% | +9.5 |
| Santos | Champion | 20.5% | 12.1% | −8.4 |
| Guarani | Sudamericana | 25.2% | 33.4% | +8.2 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 71.3% | 63.1% | −8.2 |
| Cruzeiro | Champion | 29.6% | 37.7% | +8.0 |
| Internacional | Libertadores | 26.0% | 18.1% | −7.9 |
