Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
12 matches played out of 12: 7 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Paraná beat Vasco with a 21.3% chance and Ponte Preta beat Vitória with a 21.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on June 29 (before the first match) against those on July 6 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza | Relegation | 48.0% | 59.1% | +11.1 |
| Corinthians | Libertadores | 38.2% | 29.2% | −9.0 |
| Santos | Libertadores | 62.5% | 71.2% | +8.7 |
| Vasco | Sudamericana | 31.9% | 23.5% | −8.4 |
| Vitória | Sudamericana | 35.8% | 27.6% | −8.2 |
| Ponte Preta | Relegation | 15.3% | 7.5% | −7.8 |
| Santos | Champion | 15.6% | 23.0% | +7.4 |
| Paraná | Sudamericana | 20.5% | 27.9% | +7.4 |
| Ponte Preta | Sudamericana | 14.2% | 21.0% | +6.8 |
| Goiás | Relegation | 37.2% | 43.7% | +6.5 |
