Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Luton Town beat Everton with a 19.3% chance, Crystal Palace beat Manchester United with a 15.6% chance, and Wolverhampton beat Manchester City with a 11.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on September 24 (before the first match) against those on October 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Champions League | 52.5% | 38.0% | −14.5 |
| Luton Town | Relegation | 56.5% | 42.5% | −14.1 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 19.9% | 31.6% | +11.6 |
| Manchester City | Champion | 46.3% | 35.6% | −10.7 |
| Wolverhampton | Relegation | 24.5% | 14.4% | −10.0 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 56.6% | 66.5% | +9.9 |
| Bournemouth | Relegation | 33.2% | 41.7% | +8.5 |
| Manchester City | Champions League | 89.1% | 80.7% | −8.4 |
| Burnley | Relegation | 58.2% | 66.6% | +8.4 |
| Manchester United | Champions League | 18.5% | 10.6% | −7.9 |
