Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Crystal Palace beat Liverpool with a 8.9% chance, Fulham beat West Ham with a 22.5% chance, and Aston Villa beat Arsenal with a 17.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on April 8 (before the first match) against those on April 15 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 28.8% | 68.9% | +40.1 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 70.6% | 30.9% | −39.7 |
| Tottenham | Europa League | 27.4% | 64.8% | +37.4 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 65.8% | 30.0% | −35.8 |
| Manchester City | Champion | 24.4% | 54.7% | +30.3 |
| Liverpool | Champion | 35.8% | 17.2% | −18.6 |
| Newcastle | Conference League | 30.9% | 46.3% | +15.5 |
| Arsenal | Champion | 39.9% | 28.1% | −11.7 |
| Manchester United | Conference League | 47.0% | 37.9% | −9.1 |
| West Ham | Conference League | 5.1% | 0.9% | −4.2 |
