Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Luton Town beat Brighton & Hove Albion with a 20.9% chance and Newcastle beat Aston Villa with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 22 (before the first match) against those on February 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 64.3% | 45.1% | −19.2 |
| Luton Town | Relegation | 54.0% | 35.3% | −18.7 |
| Tottenham | Champions League | 47.0% | 58.7% | +11.7 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 19.2% | 29.5% | +10.3 |
| Nottingham | Relegation | 19.7% | 28.9% | +9.2 |
| Newcastle | Conference League | 10.3% | 17.2% | +6.9 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 79.6% | 86.4% | +6.8 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Conference League | 17.8% | 11.8% | −6.0 |
| Manchester United | Conference League | 13.0% | 17.8% | +4.9 |
| Tottenham | Europa League | 28.4% | 23.8% | −4.6 |
