Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. 4 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Derby County beat Aston Villa with a 23.5% chance, Blackburn Rovers beat Charlton Athletic with a 17.2% chance, Newcastle beat Leeds United with a 21.2% chance, and Ipswich Town beat Tottenham with a 22.1% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 19 (before the first match) against those on February 19 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | Champions League | 41.5% | 93.5% | +52.0 |
| Leeds United | Europa League | 18.4% | 69.2% | +50.9 |
| Leeds United | Champions League | 68.7% | 18.2% | −50.5 |
| Ipswich Town | Relegation | 53.4% | 4.8% | −48.5 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 25.9% | 64.0% | +38.1 |
| Leicester City | Relegation | 56.4% | 94.4% | +38.0 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 6.2% | 36.1% | +29.9 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 54.3% | 82.0% | +27.7 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 66.2% | 90.7% | +24.6 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Relegation | 21.1% | 45.5% | +24.4 |
