Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 4 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Newcastle beat Derby County with a 22.0% chance, Coventry City beat Sheffield Wednesday with a 22.7% chance, and Leicester City beat Tottenham with a 24.2% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 21 (before the first match) against those on April 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | Relegation | 23.8% | 7.8% | −15.9 |
| Liverpool | Europa League | 24.5% | 35.9% | +11.4 |
| Derby County | Europa League | 16.0% | 6.5% | −9.5 |
| Charlton Athletic | Relegation | 50.9% | 60.3% | +9.4 |
| Chelsea | Champion | 10.4% | 19.5% | +9.1 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 19.1% | 13.1% | −6.0 |
| Chelsea | Champions League | 79.4% | 85.3% | +5.9 |
| Chelsea | Europa League | 20.5% | 14.7% | −5.8 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 67.4% | 61.9% | −5.5 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 92.9% | 88.6% | −4.4 |
