Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Sheffield Wednesday beat Blackburn Rovers with a 24.6% chance and Charlton Athletic beat Derby County with a 15.5% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 17 (before the first match) against those on February 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton Athletic | Relegation | 53.0% | 33.2% | −19.8 |
| Leeds United | Europa League | 35.9% | 49.3% | +13.4 |
| Coventry City | Relegation | 36.8% | 49.6% | +12.8 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 69.0% | 59.3% | −9.7 |
| Blackburn Rovers | Relegation | 9.0% | 17.5% | +8.4 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 46.3% | 54.5% | +8.2 |
| Everton | Relegation | 24.2% | 32.1% | +7.8 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 77.9% | 85.3% | +7.4 |
| Derby County | Europa League | 15.6% | 8.3% | −7.3 |
| Aston Villa | Champions League | 23.6% | 16.8% | −6.8 |
