Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 3 home wins, 3 draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Derby County beat Manchester United with a 11.8% chance, Southampton beat Nottingham with a 22.3% chance, and Coventry City beat Liverpool with a 12.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 24 (before the first match) against those on May 7 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | Relegation | 76.2% | 0.7% | −75.5 |
| Middlesbrough | Relegation | 27.5% | 74.5% | +47.1 |
| Nottingham | Relegation | 63.9% | 100% | +36.1 |
| Liverpool | Europa League | 21.0% | 54.1% | +33.0 |
| Liverpool | Champions League | 78.0% | 45.9% | −32.1 |
| Manchester United | Champion | 72.9% | 100% | +27.1 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 10.5% | 37.0% | +26.5 |
| Liverpool | Champion | 24.0% | 0% | −24.0 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 18.8% | 0% | −18.8 |
| Coventry City | Relegation | 71.3% | 86.0% | +14.7 |
