Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. 3 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Southampton beat Newcastle with a 12.9% chance, Nottingham beat Tottenham with a 21.6% chance, and Leicester City beat Wimbledon with a 16.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 26 (before the first match) against those on March 2 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | Champion | 57.1% | 74.4% | +17.3 |
| Newcastle | Champions League | 34.5% | 19.0% | −15.4 |
| Southampton | Relegation | 61.1% | 46.3% | −14.9 |
| Arsenal | Champions League | 10.6% | 25.4% | +14.8 |
| Nottingham | Relegation | 49.9% | 35.5% | −14.5 |
| West Ham | Relegation | 36.4% | 50.3% | +13.9 |
| Middlesbrough | Relegation | 71.6% | 83.7% | +12.0 |
| Coventry City | Relegation | 23.5% | 34.2% | +10.7 |
| Wimbledon | Europa League | 28.7% | 18.1% | −10.6 |
| Aston Villa | Europa League | 14.4% | 24.3% | +9.9 |
