Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, no draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Celta Vigo beat Sevilla with a 21.2% chance and Almería beat Las Palmas with a 12.7% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 11 (before the first match) against those on March 17 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 58.1% | 40.0% | −18.1 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 61.1% | 77.7% | +16.7 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 46.4% | 63.0% | +16.6 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 38.9% | 53.8% | +14.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 23.6% | 9.0% | −14.7 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 48.0% | 33.5% | −14.5 |
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 50.4% | 64.0% | +13.7 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 26.2% | 15.5% | −10.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 7.7% | 2.5% | −5.2 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 3.2% | 6.9% | +3.7 |
