Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 6 home wins, 1 draw and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Cádiz beat Atlético Madrid with a 20.3% chance and Villarreal beat Real Betis with a 20.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on March 4 (before the first match) against those on March 11 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 79.0% | 58.1% | −20.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 19.4% | 38.9% | +19.5 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 27.8% | 46.4% | +18.6 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 79.5% | 61.1% | −18.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Conference League | 34.2% | 50.4% | +16.2 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 39.1% | 26.2% | −12.9 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 59.6% | 48.0% | −11.6 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 13.1% | 23.6% | +10.6 |
| Athletic Club | Conference League | 9.8% | 5.0% | −4.8 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 3.2% | 7.7% | +4.5 |
