Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 3 draws and 5 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Barcelona with a 12.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 22 (before the first match) against those on January 29 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 60.5% | 70.9% | +10.4 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 86.5% | 78.9% | −7.6 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 13.4% | 19.2% | +5.9 |
| Barcelona | Champion | 7.6% | 2.1% | −5.5 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 7.5% | 2.2% | −5.2 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 9.7% | 14.8% | +5.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 22.9% | 27.9% | +5.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Europa League | 22.9% | 18.0% | −4.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 69.7% | 74.3% | +4.6 |
| Villarreal | Relegation | 6.6% | 2.1% | −4.5 |
