Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 1 draw and 4 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Las Palmas beat Rayo Vallecano with a 23.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 14 (before the first match) against those on January 22 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 59.4% | 42.5% | −16.8 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 16.4% | 7.5% | −8.9 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 79.3% | 86.5% | +7.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 53.5% | 60.5% | +7.1 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 24.0% | 30.9% | +7.0 |
| Real Betis | Conference League | 20.2% | 13.4% | −6.9 |
| Athletic Club | Conference League | 11.2% | 18.0% | +6.8 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 47.0% | 52.4% | +5.4 |
| Real Sociedad | Europa League | 17.5% | 22.3% | +4.8 |
| Barcelona | Europa League | 13.8% | 9.7% | −4.1 |
