Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 2 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Deportivo Alavés beat Sevilla with a 16.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 4 (before the first match) against those on February 1 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 31.7% | 2.6% | −29.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 54.9% | 75.3% | +20.4 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 49.5% | 35.0% | −14.5 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 36.7% | 49.7% | +13.0 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 24.7% | 36.5% | +11.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 18.3% | 8.6% | −9.7 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 69.2% | 78.4% | +9.2 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 9.9% | 18.1% | +8.3 |
| Atlético Madrid | Conference League | 13.6% | 5.5% | −8.1 |
| Granada | Relegation | 83.3% | 90.4% | +7.1 |
