Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 5 home wins, 4 draws and 1 away win. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Getafe beat Sevilla with a 21.3% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 11 (before the first match) against those on December 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 21.2% | 33.4% | +12.2 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 76.0% | 65.9% | −10.0 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 36.7% | 28.3% | −8.4 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 24.3% | 30.7% | +6.5 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 56.9% | 63.0% | +6.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champion | 12.9% | 6.8% | −6.1 |
| Girona | Champions League | 83.5% | 89.4% | +6.0 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 37.5% | 32.5% | −5.1 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 6.0% | 10.3% | +4.3 |
| Granada | Relegation | 79.7% | 83.6% | +3.8 |
