Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 3 draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Valencia beat Rayo Vallecano with a 21.6% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on December 18 (before the first match) against those on December 21 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 63.0% | 69.6% | +6.6 |
| Granada | Relegation | 83.6% | 89.6% | +6.1 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 68.8% | 74.8% | +6.0 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 65.9% | 60.1% | −5.9 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 28.3% | 33.8% | +5.5 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 33.4% | 38.6% | +5.2 |
| Sevilla | Relegation | 10.3% | 5.2% | −5.1 |
| Mallorca | Relegation | 11.2% | 6.4% | −4.8 |
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 32.5% | 28.4% | −4.1 |
| Girona | Champion | 23.8% | 19.8% | −4.0 |
