Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 2 draws and 4 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Cádiz beat Real Madrid with a 6.6% chance and Elche beat Deportivo Alavés with a 19.0% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on October 4 (before the first match) against those on October 18 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | Champions League | 26.5% | 41.6% | +15.1 |
| Elche | Relegation | 36.2% | 22.7% | −13.6 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 68.1% | 55.0% | −13.2 |
| Deportivo Alavés | Relegation | 31.2% | 43.3% | +12.1 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 71.9% | 61.9% | −10.1 |
| Atlético Madrid | Champions League | 44.0% | 54.0% | +9.9 |
| Sevilla | Champions League | 54.7% | 44.9% | −9.7 |
| Celta Vigo | Relegation | 36.5% | 45.5% | +9.0 |
| Cádiz | Relegation | 26.0% | 18.1% | −7.9 |
| Real Madrid | Champion | 25.2% | 17.5% | −7.7 |
